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Since Meese and Rogoff (1983) results showed that no model could outperform a random walk in predicting exchange rates. Many papers have tried to find a forecasting methodology that could beat the random walk, at least for certain forecasting periods. This Element compares the Purchasing Power Parity, the Uncovered Interest Rate, the Sticky Price, the Bayesian Model Averaging, and the Bayesian Vector Autoregression models to the random walk benchmark in forecasting exchange rates between most South American currencies and the US Dollar, and between the Paraguayan Guarani and the Brazilian Real and the Argentinian Peso. Forecasts are evaluated under the criteria of Root Mean Square Error, Direction of Change, and the Diebold-Mariano statistic. The results indicate that the two Bayesian models have greater forecasting power and that there is little evidence in favor of using the other three fundamentals models, except Purchasing Power Parity at longer forecasting horizons.

Foreign exchange rates --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Rates

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How did the Bank of England manage sterling crises? This book steps into the shoes of the Bank's foreign exchange dealers to show how foreign exchange intervention worked in practice. The author reviews the history of sterling over half a century, using new archives, data and unseen photographs. This book traces the sterling crises from the end of the War to Black Wednesday in 1992. The resulting analysis shows that a secondary reserve currency such as sterling plays an important role in the stability of the international system. The author goes on to explore the lessons the Bretton Woods system on managed exchange rates has for contemporary policy makers in the context of Brexit. This is a crucial reference for scholars in economics and history examining past and current prospects for the international financial system. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

Foreign exchange rates --- NON-CLASSIFIABLE --- History --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Rates

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Foreign exchange administration --- -Foreign exchange rates --- -Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Case studies --- Rates --- Foreign exchange rates --- Case studies. --- -Case studies --- Exchange rates

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Discussions of the different theoretical and empirical paradigms for setting and predicting exchange rates.Recent theoretical developments in exchange rate economics have led to important new insights into the functioning of the foreign exchange market. The simple models of the 1970s, which could not withstand empirical evaluation, have been succeeded by more complex models that draw on theoretical work in such areas as the microstructure of financial markets and open economy macroeconomics. Additionally, new and powerful econometric techniques allow researchers to subject exchange rates to stronger empirical analysis.This book discusses the divergent theoretical and empirical paradigms used today for setting and predicting exchange rates; the chapters reflect current debates in the field. Some chapters base their analyses on the theoretical framework of representative and fully informed rational agents; others are grounded in the hetereogeneity of agents who use different and incomplete sets of information. Still other chapters analyze empirical data to uncover the fundamental characteristics of exchange rates. Taken together, these competing analyses document the current state of exchange rate economics and point the way to a new consensus about how to predict and explain exchange rate movements.

Foreign exchange rates --- Econometric models --- ECONOMICS/Finance --- ECONOMICS/Trade & Development --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Rates

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Exchange rate policy has profound consequences for economic development, financial crises, and international political conflict. Some governments in the developing world maintain excessively weak and "undervalued" exchange rates, a policy that promotes export-led development but often heightens tensions with foreign governments. Many other developing countries "overvalue" their exchange rates, which increases consumers' purchasing power but often reduces economic growth. In Demanding Devaluation, David Steinberg argues that the demands of powerful interest groups often dictate government decisions about the level of the exchange rate. Combining rich qualitative case studies of China, Argentina, South Korea, Mexico, and Iran with cross-national statistical analyses, Steinberg reveals that exchange rate policy is heavily influenced by a country's domestic political arrangements. Interest group demands influence exchange rate policy, and national institutional structures shape whether interest groups lobby for an undervalued or an overvalued rate. A country's domestic political system helps determine whether it undervalues its exchange rate and experiences explosive economic growth or if it overvalues its exchange rate and sees its economy stagnate as a result.

Foreign exchange rates --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Political aspects. --- Rates --- Political aspects --- E-books